Bitcoin's price appears poised for a potential drop as spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experience a resurgence in inflows.
Over the last seven years, Bitcoin has delivered an impressive average annual return of 44%, with recent data showing over $38.5 million in net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs within the last 15 trading sessions.
Additionally, a new study indicates a 70% decrease in GBTC outflows from their peak, coinciding with a significant sell-off of BTC by Bitcoin exchanges. This shift occurs amidst observations that Bitcoin ETFs, including GBTC, might begin experiencing net inflows again as the balance of BTC on exchanges resumes its downward trend.
Experts from Santiment have also noted a resurgence of Tether (USDT) inflows to exchanges, a pattern traditionally viewed as a bullish signal, suggesting a readiness to sell.
Grayscale stands out as the leading public company holding the largest amount of BTC, surpassing other major players like MicroStrategy, BlackRock, Fidelity, and Purpose Investments, with an impressive 487,026 BTC in its possession. These shares are traded on the stock market.
The increasing involvement of mainstream financial institutions in the cryptocurrency sector underscores a growing belief in the enduring value of digital assets, effectively narrowing the divide between traditional finance and the cryptocurrency innovation space.
In a recent statement, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell highlighted concerns over the United States' financial trajectory, describing it as "unsustainable" due to debt growth surpassing economic expansion. He warned that investors might soon doubt the government's debt repayment capability, potentially leading them to shift away from the US dollar towards alternative hedges, with Bitcoin emerging as a prime candidate.
Bitcoin's Price Forecast: Potential for a 5% Decline Currently, Bitcoin's price is navigating a tight range, sandwiched between the Bollinger Bands' centerline at $41,882 and the upper limit at $44,182, signaling a possible sharp movement in the near future.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a bearish trend, potentially breaking below the signal line soon. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is muted below its histogram bars, hinting at a potential move into negative territory. The Awesome Oscillators (AO) have leveled off, indicating a weakening bullish momentum.
Given this scenario, Bitcoin's price could see a 5% reduction, seeking support at the intersection of the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the horizontal support line at $40,651. Should it breach this level, BTC might retreat to the demand zone ranging between $38,496 and $39,582.
Conversely, a surge in buying pressure could propel Bitcoin above the $44,184 resistance, potentially reaching $48,000 or, in an optimistic scenario, climbing to $50,000 – marking a 20% increase from its current position.